When Will the Economy Recover?

When will this wretched economy bottom out? The recession is already in its 15th month, making it longer than all but two downturns since World War II. For now, everything seems to be getting worse: The Dow is in free fall, jobs are vanishing every day, and one in eight American homeowners is in foreclosure or behind on payments.
But the economy always recovers. It runs in cycles, and economists are watching an array of statistics, some of them buried deep beneath the headlines, to spot the turning point. The Associated Press examined three markets — housing, jobs and stocks — and asked experts where things stand and how to know when they've hit bottom.
None of them expects it to come anytime soon.

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JOBS
HOW BAD IS IT?: The U.S. unemployment rate hit 8.1 percent in February, a 25-year peak. The nation has lost 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in late 2007.
The job cuts began early last year, as the housing and construction industries slowed down. The collapse of the financial industry in the fall battered white-collar workers. Soon, layoffs spread across industries and income levels.

HOW MUCH WORSE COULD IT GET? The darkest days for the job market are almost certainly still ahead. With spending weak and credit markets stalled, experts think the economy will probably shed a total of 2.4 million jobs this year. That would mean an unemployment rate above 9 percent.

That would easily surpass the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions but trail the 10.8 percent rate of December 1982. Those expectations could be optimistic: The government's "stress tests" to check the strength of banks' balance sheets assume a 10.3 percent rate.
The job market will probably be weak for years, even if the economy starts to turn around next year. The unemployment rate may not fall back to its pre-recession level of 5 percent until 2013, according to Moody's Economy.com.

WHERE'S THE BOTTOM?: Economist Sophia Koropeckyj, a managing director at Moody's Economy.com, is keeping an eye out for two signs — an inching up in companies hiring temporary workers and a rise in the number of hours worked by those who have managed to keep their part-time and full-time jobs.

US Dow Jones Sinking Deeper & Deeper to 6500 Level

Its another troubling day for US Wall Street as Dow Jones sinks down to 6500 Level, sinking slowly like a Quick Sand.

Toyota today announced that it may cut down its production, which steers Bankruptcy fears among the Japan Auto Part Suppliers if the Government don't provide Financial Aid to the Car Makers.

General Motors, previously World's Biggest Car Manufacturer announced its Annual Report which the Company Auditors mentioned "Substantial Doubt" that GM would generate enough revenue to maintain its business unless more government aid is given. Looks like more negative news ahead.

Below are the latest Charts for US Dow Jones & KLCI Futures Spot Month. its on a Downtrend.

More Bad News as US Dow Jones Slips Below 6780

Fear & Gloom shadows the World Market as US Dow Jones Slips below the 6780, even went as low as 6755. US Dow Jones are now at the Lowest Level in 12 Years. US Dow Jones Historical high was 14,198. It has dropped more than 53% in within the last 18 months.

Scary huh? Imagine the wealth of most Billionaires has reduced to more than half gone within a period of 18 months.

An article today shows that Japan is now in the worse Recession since the World War 2 era. Suffering more than US & Europe. Toyota the world biggest Car Maker suffered a USD$ 3.6 Billion Dollar Loss. AIG Slumps as it reports a total loss of USD$62 Billion for the last quater 2008 4Q. Japan suffered the worst GDP drop in 35 years history. Singapore Economic Growth dropped 5%, the worst since 1965. This is even worst than 1997/98 Financial Crisis. We are not doubt in the Eye of the Storm. 12 Years ago its was only a Asian Financial Crisis. Now, its a World Market Problem.

These are hard times for alot of companies for the last year, its almost a never end of bad news from the Financial Market World Wife. So brace yourselves for a ride.

Dow Jones Slipping Lower - 13 Year Low

Dow Jones is now slipping near the 7000 Level. It is now 13 year Record Low. Once it Breaks 7000. The Support is gone. I expect a possible massive Market Sell down coming soon.

The Chart Below show that Dow Jones is on a Down Trend.

Since KLCI Follows US Market Closely. Most likely Monday will be a Down Trend as the dissapointing 0.1% GDP Growth and Dow Jones has also drop another 119pts to 13 year Low.

Attached is the KLCI Charts. The Next March Spot Month Contracts will start on Monday.

Malaysia 2008 4th Quater 0.1% GDP Growth Only

Friday night's Announcement of Malaysia's 0.1% GDP Growth for the 4th Quater of 2008 was no surprise. A huge Drop from the 4.7% Growth in the 3rd Quater. A Financial Recession is defined when there are 2 consecutive Negative Growth of two Quaters.

Meaning to say, if 1st Quater and 2nd Quater of 2009 is Negative Growth GDP, Malaysia would be officially in a National Recession. We are in no doubt a Financial Crisis world Wide now.

To imagine that a few listed companies are being delisted. And even the Famous FERRE Fashion Brand Company has applied for Bankurptcy in Europe. CitiBank has requested more fund injections from the Goverment. Singapore GIC has taken up to 11% is CitiCorp Holidngs and has become the 2nd largest stake Holders in CitiCorp.

Things and looking more grim and negative as the day goes by where there are more bad news coming out everyday.

F&N Malaysia have lost the Coca-Cola Frenchise. Malaysia Goverment will launch a new Stimulus on 10th March this month.

Do be cautious when trading in the month of Feb & March. Pass History shows that this two months are very volatile and are more down trend and also when Major Sell down occurs.

Volatile Week Ahead

The Futures & CPO Market for the last few days have been fair volatile. Up and Downs immediately due to the overnight US Market Performance.

Last night (Tuesday Night) US Market Dow Jones went up 236pts. Hence our KLSE Futures market was following the Running Herd and went up almost to 895. Opening higher 5 points higher than previous closing at 894 and then whole day hovering up and down and finally closing at 893.50.

From the charts it looks like KLCI is now stable and is on the uptrend. However, that is still due to be influence by overnight US and other European markets. Charts now days can go haywire if US over nigh market changes dramatically.

For now, the KLCI Charts shows an Uptrend Sign, Moving Average, Stockastics & MACD is slight up. But it is still best to monitor what's happening tomorrow morning. Real Live Trading & Monitor is still required to track the CI Futures Closely.

A few heavyweight Counters of the KLSE Financial Quaterly Results for Year 2008 will be out this Friday. Expect a Volatile Week ahead.

Everyday as I read the newspaper and Financial News, there are more bad news and less good news coming up. Good Year Retrench 5000 Staff World Wide, a few Japanese Listed Companies is filing for Bankruptcy, US Dow Jones & other World Market are now trading at near 1997 (12 Year Low). Looks like US Goverment is facing more headaches ahead.

Alot of poeple view US President Obama as the next biggest thing after Jesus Christ. And they pray that he can save them from this Financial Crisis. If he fails to succeed, then there would be a massive sell down of the World Market to push the indices even Lower. Can you imagine if KLCI goes down to 450-500 Level?

Trading Tools

If any of you are wondering, what does a good trader use as Technical Analyst Tools. Then I would Suggest Winquote & Metastock.

Winquote is a Live Data Feed Stock Market Tools, which can cover any World Market (Provided that you pay for the subscription) including KLSE, SGX, HSI, US & European Market if you are interested in trading them.

Here is an example of what I see on my World Market Page, this is all real time live data Feed, its not like Yahoo which is 15 Minutes or sometimes 30 minutes late.

As You can see, Dow Jones is trading around 7300, that's almost 10 years Historical Low. Where as Our KLCI has dropped almost 9 points on friday, but futures has drop 17 points, that's means that Futures is more headed Downtrend. And with DJ down another 100 points on Friday night. I expect Today (Monday) KLCI Futures to be more down wards.

Futures & CPO Update for Feb 2009

Its been a while since I updated my outlooks for the market. Normally every year in Feb & March is actually the month where they release the Annual Financial Reports of the Listed Companies World Wide.

2 years ago in year 2007, just the 4th day of CNY, Shanghai Index crashed and caused a big sell out in World Wide market and the market tumbled for a few days.

Last year 8th March, the 308 Incident occured due to the result of the Malaysia Parliament Elections. Crashing the KLCI 15% from 1535pts in the CI to crash almost to near 1200 points.

Its almost a year after that crash, and what will happen this year? I have heard rumours that if there is a big market sell down. This time the KLCI will crash from 880 to 450. And that's very scary. Imagine reliving the 1929 Great Depression again.........

Here are some screen shots of how is the Futures Market and Crude Palm Oil is doing for the pass 2 years now. 1 year ago was paradise for every trader. 1 year later, we are still figuring whether this nightmare is over or not?

If any of you have been trading Futures & CPO, you will notice that its much more easier to earn profits (and make big losses if you are not careful) compared to trading Stock Market Equities and Unit Trust.



KLCI Futures is currently Hovering around 860 to 920.
Crude Palm Oil is Currently Hovering around 1750 to 2050.

Currrently the Margin of a KLCI Futures Contract is RM3,500 per contract.
Crude Palm Oil Margin is RM6,000 per contract.

For Beginners, I suggest putting around RM20,000 as an Initial Starting Capital to trade Futures & CPO.

Futures per point is RM50. CPO per point is RM25. There for if u earned 20 points in Futures, u have earn RM1000. 50 points on CPO would be RM1,250.

Imagine trying to earn that kind of $ thru Equities Trading in the current market Volume now using RM20,000 Capital.

Anyway, do email me at wuipin@streamyx.com or sms me at +6016-8864229 if you have any inquiries.

Another Great Depression?

In the year 1929, the world Suffered a very serious Financial Meltdown and it tooks them quite a few years before the US Economy Recovered in the early 1930s. Another World Financial Meltdown? If my thoughts are right, we will take at least 3 to 4 years to recover from this Crisis. Asia 1997 Financial Crisis took us a few years to recover, but it changed alot of people's lifes. This 2008 Financial Crisis will change even more. Are you ready for a ride?

The KLSE Plunge almost 100 pts during the last 20 days, where as future is as low as 921, the lowest since June 2006. The Spot Month KLCI Futures Chart shows today's Charts. We sink below the 1000 KLCI Points already.





Crude Palm Oil Drop from the Historical High of RM4400 per tan down to RM1800 now. Sime Darby, the world's biggest CPO Company's Share has drop from RM13.20 till RM6.00. Drop almost 50%. 1 year ago every one was so happya bout investing in Palm Oil, now I am not so sure, they would be anymore. We have gone back to the Lowest Point of the past two years.


The US Dow Jones has sink below the 10,000 points, it has suffered the biggest drop since 911 happened. Dropping almost 1000 points over the last few days.

Loosing almost 5% everyday. Is this the most feared Financial Recession for this Decade?
10 year ago, we suffered the 1997/98 Asian Financial Crisis and it took us quite a few years to recover. And that was only Asia having the Financial Crisis. But this time it is the world greatest Economy, the United States of America facing Financial Problems.

Never have I seen a Financial Crisis that Bankurpted a few Top Investment Banks in the World.
Merlyn Lynch, Lehman Brothers and AIG ( Yes, the world's biggest US Insurance Group) is having so much Financial Problems and are begging for Bail Outs from the Government. Lehman Brothers is Official Bankurpt and History. AIG is waiting for Government Bailout,

Ready For a Ride? Its gonna be even more Crazy in weeks and months to come. Dramatic!

Market Outlook - The Gathering Storm

During the past year, we have enjoyed the heights of the KLSE and the US Market Economy, the Peak of the Oil Price and now all major world market are cut by at least 30% to 50% from the Historical Height.

China's Olympic 2008 is finally over and all talk about China Market is superb and great investment is now unheard. Last year Oct 2007, the Shanghai Index was 6,123 Highest. Now its drop more than 66% to 1,803 points. Imagine their Investment was wipe out with over 66% Market Capital gone.

The Financial Analyst is very negative about the Doom and Gloom of the US Market and the World Economy especially with the US Bail Out of 700 Billion US Dollars. The biggest Financial Bailout since the 1929 US Great Depression. One which none of us had experienced in our life time.

10 Years ago, it was the Asian Financial Crisis and hence comes a recession which none of us experience before, but that only happen for Asian Country, US was not in Crisis yet. The worst is yet to come. Properchy of a US Economy Melt Down seems closer and more realitic then ever.

However, the biggest question you are going to ask yourself is?

What's in it for me? What can I do to earn Money? What can I do to stay out of this huge Recession that might be happening in months to come?

The Malaysian Stock Market is so unstable because we are not only facing world Economy Crisis, but also a Polictal Effect due to the 8th March Election Results Fallout. GLC Counters has fallen down to historical high. Foreign Fund has pull out massively. Our KLCI has from from historical high of 1523 down to the Current 1018 now.

KLCI is hovering around 1020 to 930. But Stock Counters are moving like snails and market sentiment is extremely low for the past 6 months.

But the Derivatives markets has been very exciting.

Crude Palm Oil Price has Drop from 4400 to 1700 Level now.. that's like almost 2000 points down. KLCI Futures has drop till 930 from 1532 now.

In KLSE Futures 1 point is Rm50, 500 points would mean RM25,000 with just Rm5000 capital. If we entered and short at the right position using Charting Softwares like Winquote, NextView or OSK 188 OMS. Then you would enjoyed this exciting ride. :)

Futures Contract now is about RM4000 to RM4800 per contract to trade.

And imagine earning Rm25 per point for 2500 points of Crude Palm Oil. 2500 x 25 = Rm62,500 for 2000 points of CPO..... RM25,000 for every Rm12,500 Contract Traded

That was how Volatile the Market was for the past 1 year. Having Fun?

My Chart Shows how fast is Crude Palm Oil falling down now for the past few weeks. Imagine falling from 4485 to 1700 points in less than 6 months. Thats like 4485-1700 = 2785 points gone. With Rm25 profit per point for every 1 CPO Contract Traded. Thats a Profit 2785 point xRM25 = RM69,625 for every contract Shorted.

KLCI Futures was 1523 Highest, Currently Hovering around 930 points. Thats is 1523-930 = 593 points gone. 593 Points x RM50 = RM29,650.

With just Rm20,000 Trading Capital for KLCI Futures & CPO Contract. We had the Potential to earn almost RM100,000 during this financial Crisis period.

For those of you that is only interested in Trading Stocks, dont' feel despair. Imagine during the coming Recession, you can find another good stock like Public Bank.

Which Goes from RM0.50 to RM12.00 within 10 years. I think this is one of the best Blue Chips Stocks you will ever find on the KLSE. Malaysia's most well managed Private Bank.